Not a Member? Join Now!   Already a Member? Sign In!

Blogs

Forex Markets Look to Interest Rates for Guidance

There are a number of forces currently competing for control of forex markets: the ebb and flow of risk appetite, Central Bank currency intervention, comparative economic growth differentials, and numerous technical factors. Soon, traders will have to add one more item to their list of must-watch variables: interest rates.

CFTC / NFA Enhance Regulation of Forex

In 2010, the US Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) formally released a series of new regulations governing all retail foreign exchange dealers. Having given all applicable firms almost six months to bring their operations up to speed with the new regulations, the CFTC is now moving to bring enforcement actions against those that are still not in compliance.

Has the Swiss Franc Reached its Limit?

The second half of 2010 witnessed a 20% rise in the Swiss Franc (against the US Dollar), which experienced an upswing more closely associated with equities than with currencies. It has managed to entrench itself well above parity with the Dollar, and has become a favored destination for investors looking for a safer alternative to the Euro. Still, there are reasons to wary, and it could be only a matter of time before the CHF bull market comes to a screeching halt.

Despite Recent Rise, Euro Still Looks Weak

As the Euro moves past $1.38 per Dollar towards a 1-year high, many traders are wondering if perhaps the common currency’s woes aren’t in the past. This would be a mistake. That’s because most of the forces behind the Euro’s rally actually have very little to do with the Euro.

Ratings Downgrade “Dents” Japanese Yen

Last week, S&P fulfilled rumors by lowering the Sovereign credit rating of Japan. The move immediately sparked headlines filled with words like “roil” and “turmoil,” and analysts predicted the beginning of a massive correction, like the kind that I forecast in January. I decided to wait a few days before posting on this story, in order to wait for the dust to settle. I’m glad I did, since the Yen’s stubborn refusal to slide further beggars some kind of explanation!

Emerging Market Dilemma: Currency Appreciation or Inflation?

By now, we’re all too familiar with both the so-called currency wars and its underlying cause – the inexorable appreciation of emerging market currencies. As more and more Central Banks enter the war in the form of forex intervention and capital controls, however, they are inadvertently stoking the fires of price inflation. They will all soon face a serious choice: either raise interest rates and cease trying to weaken their currencies or risk hyperinflation and concomitant economic instability.

British Pound Faces Contradictory 2011

The last few years have been volatile for the British Pound. In 2007, it touched a 26-year high against the US Dollar, before falling to a 24-year low a little more than one year later. During the throes of the credit crisis, analysts predicted that it would drop all the way to parity. Alas, it has since managed to claw back a substantial portion of its losses, and finished 2010 close to where it started.

Dow Jones Ramps up Forex Coverage

In a nod to the growing importance of forex ($4 Trillion per day and growing!), Dow Jones recently announced the development of a new forex news service. While many of the features may only be available at some expense to professional subscribers, retail traders should still enjoy some benefit.

Latin America Enters Currency War

A few years ago, I wouldn’t deign to discuss such obscure currencies as the Chilean Peso and the Peru New Sol. But this is a new era! These currencies – and their Central Banks – are being thrust into the spotlight as they join more established Latin American countries in the fight to contain currency appreciation.

Aussie May Have Peaked in 2010

When offering forecasts for 2011, I feel like I can just take the stock phrase “______ is due for a correction” and apply it to one of any number of currencies. But let’s face it: 2009 – 2010 were banner years for commodity currencies and emerging market currencies, as investors shook off the credit crisis and piled back into risky assets. As a result, a widespread correction might be just what the doctor ordered, starting with the Australian Dollar.

Syndicate content