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Technical

GBPUSD holds support, moves higher and then surges higher

gregmike-04452

The support at the 1.6400 and 1.6413 level held like a charm (see prior post) and the pair moved higher.  The move became a surge after the price moved through the 100 hour moving average at the 1.6476 level .  The next target is the 1.6554 where the 200 hour MA is found.   Look for buyers against the 1.6495 level as the momentum move was impressive in the pair.

Further comment from SNB Jordan

  •  MID-TERM INFLATION RISK IN SWITZERLAND IS LOW
  •  TOO EARLY TO START NORMALIZING SNB POLICY
  •  SNB WILL CONTINUE PURCHASES OF FRANC BONDS
  •  MARKET HAS UNDERSTOOD SNB INTERVENTION POLICY WELL
  • DEFLATIONARY RISKS STILL CAN’T BE RULED OUT
  • CONTENT WITH CURRENT EURO-FRANC RANGE
  • EURO-FRANC TRADING AT 1.50-1.53 CURRENTLY
  • STOCK MARKET REBOUND IS EXAGGERATED

His comment on the range of the EURCHF is interesting.   With the EURCHF trading at 1.5214, the market is right between the goal posts.

SNBs Jordan on the newswires. Pushes EURCHF higher.

  • RETURN TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MID-2010
  • SWISS RECOVERY TO LAG BEHIND NEIGHBORS’
  • NOT CLEAR IF STIMULUS PLANS HAVE LASTING EFFECT
  •  RECOVERY TO BE WEAK, SEES DOWNSIDE RISKS
  • SEES EUROPE STARTING TO GROW AGAIN IN EARLY 2010
  • U.S., EUROPEAN RECESSION EASING

Comments are CHF bearish and should lead to a higherEUUCHF and USDCHF.   Look for support in the EURCHF against 1.5206.  Upside is favored.

EURJPY finding support at the 133.17 level

gregmike-04450

The EURJPY moved through 100 day moving average at 133.17 in early trade today reached an peak and came back down on the back of the EURUSD and USDJPY moving back off their highs. However, the price has now found good support against the level and is moving back higher.  The next target is the green line in the chart below at the 133.81, but given the bounce off the key moving average and the inability to continue the downside momentum from yesterdays move lower, the upside is the preferred direction. 

EURGBP gets hit hard today. Tests the 50% midpoint retracement level

gregmike-04449

The EURUSD is under some pressure. The GBPUSD is bouncing off support.  The combination means the EURGBP is falling.. 

The pair has moved below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at the 0.8609 and 0.8579 levels and now approaches the midpoint of the last move higher. That level comes in at the 0.8553 level and should provide some support.  Look for buyers/profit takers against the level with stops on a break below.

USDJPY tests the 100 hour moving average and moves lower overnight

gregmike-04447

The USDJPY moved higher overnight on more favorable risk appetite, but held the 100 hour MA at the 95.20 level (see early post by clicking here) and has continued to come off after the worse than expected US data at 8:30 AM.  The price is also back below the 200 day MA at the 95.00 level.  This level will be of more importance on the close today but should also provide upside resistance intraday.

PPI and US Housing Starts and Building Permits lower than expected

Housing Starts fall to 581K from 587K
Building Permits came in at 560K versus 570K

US PPI MoM came in much lower at -0.9% vs -0.3% expected and 1.8% gain last month
Ex Food and Energy  -0.1% vs +0.1% expected and +0.5% last month

YoY came in lower at -6.8% vs -5.9% expected and down from -4.6% last month
Ex Food and Energy +2.6% vs 2.8% expected.

Stocks fell on the news and the intial reaction in the currency markets has been a reversal of the trends seen today with EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY moving lower.  However, there has been a bounce back off the lows.  Watching 1.6413 in the GBPUSD and the 1.4082 level (close from yesterday on the EURUSD).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.18.2009

bob-slade-forex-trading-5-150x200Good Morning:

The Euro gained overnight as German investor confidence surged to the highest level in 3 years.  The market looks at this data as another sign that the worldwide recovery is starting to take hold.  

Worldwide equity markets and metals rose on the heels of this morning’s German investor confidence data.
This morning’s US housing starts data is expected to rise, and this speculation also added to the equity and commodity markets rally overnight.

Oil:$67.40                          Gold:$937.50

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