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Technical

RBA Asst Governor Edey Speaks in Sydney

The RBAs assistant governor Malcolm Edey had the following comments in a speech today in Sydney:

  • Australian banks are emerging stronger from global crisis, less reliant on the government.
  • There is low level of home loan appreciation in Australia.
  • Funding costs for Australian banks have risen.
  • Banks face more demanding global regulations.
  • Priority should be to end bank guarantees.
  • The phase of propping up banks is now behind us.
  • Consumer confidence is back to high levels.

The risk and commodity pairs have moved to session highs on these comments and additional comments from RBA Governor McKibbin.

PIMCO’s Mewbourne on the Wire

PIMCO’s Mewbourne commented that the USD is losing its global status as the store of value and that the USD may extend declines, particularly against emerging market currencies. This web report has pushed the Dollar to session lows across the board, as USD/JPY again approaches the 95 handle.

NZD Producer Prices

The NZD Producer Prices came out better than expected, also better than the prior release. The JPY has sold off to session lows on the following breakdown of Inputs and Outputs:

  • PPI - Inputs (QoQ) - Survey: -1.0%   Actual: 0.0%   Prior: -2.5%
  • PPI - Outputs (QoQ) - Survey: -0.5%   Actual: -7.0%   Prior: -1.4%

Australian Finance Minister Tanner on the Wire

The Aussie Finance Minister had the following comments ahead of the Kiwi PPI, which somewhat surprisingly propped up some of the risk and commodity pairs against the USD, with only the China comment seemingly positive.

  • Cautiously optimistic the economy is improving.
  • Growth is still viewed as lackluster.
  • Commercial ties with China are in good health.
  • Too early to call an end to the global recession.

EURUSD inches along to the upside.

gregmike-04468

The EURUSD is testing the 200 hour MA after moving through the trendline resistance at 1.4122 (currently).  There is still upside resistance against 1.4153 (38.2% retracement resistance). 

gregmike-04469

AUDUSD remembers the old trendline support

gregmike-04459

The AUDUSD is remembering the prior support level for the pair.  That trendline defined the bottom of the channel in early August trade.  Earlier today the line was tested and the price moved lower.  Not the market is approaching the level again.  The current resistance comes in at the 0.8265 level. Look for sellers against the level with stops likely on a move above. 

EURCHF comes back down after initial move higher on SNB Jordan comments

gregmike-04458

The EURCHF moved up on the SNB Jordans comments but then sold back off through support at the 1.5206 level.  The ensuing sell off has taken the pair back down toward 100 day MA support at the 1.5064 level.  This moving average has held on 8 separate occasion since the end of June.  This is significant support.  A close below this level would be negative but I expect buyers against the level until that time.

GBPUSD makes it above the 200 hour MA

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The GBPUSD has now moved above the 200 hour MA at the 1.6550 level and next targets the resistance area at 1.6589 and then 1.6605 . There should be additional momentum to the upside on the break.

EURJPY finds resistance at 200 hour moving average a tough nut to crack

gregmike-04456

The 200 hour moving average is proving to be a tough nut to crack and this is causing some selling against the level. There is support stil at the 131.51 but as London/EUROPE goes home, the momentum to the upside might suffer.   I would lose upside faith if the price moves back below the 133.51 level, with downside confirmation on a move back below 133.17.  Until then holding onto the upside with the cracking of the 200 hour the hurdle to get through.

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