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Australian Employment Report

The Aussie Employment Report was slightly better than expected, giving the AUD a short lived bid. Risk continues to trade lower this Asian session. The details of the release are as follows:

  • Employment Change – Survey:10K   Actual:10.1K   Prior:204.4K
  • Unemployment Rate – Survey:5.3%   Actual:5.2%  Prior:5.3%
  • Full Time Change -  Actual:20K   Prior:10.8K
  • Part Time Change – Actual:-9.9K   Prior:9.6K
  • Participation Rate – Survey:65.6%%   Actual:65.6%   Prior:65.6%

Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectation

The Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectation was up 2.5% in November, lower than the prior months increase of 3.1%. The AUDUSD pair declined mildly following the release.

Aussie Trade Balance & Confidence

The weaker surplus in the Aussie Trade Balance reading moved the AUD and risk a touch lower. The details of the release are as follows:


  • Trade Balance – Survey:3000M   Actual:2564M   Prior:3100M
  • NAb Business Confidence  – Actual:2   Prior:-2
  • NAb Business Confidence  – Actual:-1   Prior:2

Aussie Retail Sales

Australian September and Q3 Retail Sales figures came in as expected and the market has had a muted reaction to the release. The details are as follows:

  • Retail Sales sa (MoM) – Survey:0.4%   Actual:0.4%   Prior:0.6%
  • Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) – Survey:0.6%   Actual:0.6%   Prior:0.3%

Aussie House Price Index

The Aussie House Price Index was released weaker on a year over year basis and we see the AUDUSD pair trading on session lows after a worse PMI reading out of China and more importantly the market anticipating a 25 basis point cut in Cash Rate later today. The details are as follows:

  • House Price Index (QoQ) – Survey:-1.5%   Actual:-1.2%   Prior:-0.1%
  • House Price Index (YoY) – Survey:-1.8%   Actual:-2.2%   Prior:-1.9%

Aussie Inflation Report

The TD Securities Inflation Report showed a decline in the year over year reading and risk pairs continued to go offered as we start the trading week. The details are as follows:

  • TD Securities Inflation (MoM) – Actual:0.1%   Prior:0.1%
  • TD Securities Inflation (YoY) – Actual:2.6%   Prior:2.8%

Aussie Treasures Swan Comments on CPI Data Earlier

  • Data shows inflation has moderated.
  • Many households ‘doing it tough.’
  • Fruit prices should ‘unwind’ after disasters.
  • Australia has growing economy, contained inflation.
  • There are ‘rock solid’ fundamentals in economy.
  • Reserve Bank should take ‘great heart’ from inflation, CPI data.
  • Europe leaders need to find enduring resolution.
  • Europe needs ‘real action.’

Aussie Q3 CPI

Aussie CPI came in as expected overall, however the weighted mean and median came in well below expectations quarter over quarter pushing the AUD/USD pair ~ 60 pips lower and through the 1.04 handle. The details of the release are as follows:

  • CPI (QoQ) – Survey:0.6%   Actual:0.6%   Prior:0.9%
  • CPI (QoQ) – Survey:3.5%   Actual:3.5%   Prior:3.6%
  • RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) – Survey:0.6%   Actual:0.3%   Prior:0.7%
  • RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) - Survey:2.7%   Actual:2.3%   Prior:2.7%
  • RBA Weighted Mean (QoQ) – Survey:0.6%   Actual:0.3%   Prior:0.9%
  • RBA Weighted Mean (YoY) – Survey:2.7%   Actual:2.6%   Prior:2.7%

Forex Market Outlook 10/25/11

By Mike Conlon, on Oct 25, 2011

Well it looks like the market is unaware that there is major risk potential in the marketplace as stocks and commodities took off yesterday and it was “game on” for risk appetite. As a result, the Euro as well as the commodity bloc currencies moved higher despite the Euro debt decision due out tomorrow.

Does the market know something that we don’t? As often is the case, the answer is simply “no”. What the market does know is that it wants to take on risk and wants to buy stocks (especially large fund managers who have posted less than stellar returns) as corporate earnings have been largely better than expected. Throw in higher Chinese PMI data that showed that they aren’t slowing entirely and you have a recipe for gains.

Aussie PPI

The 3rd quarter Producer Price Index came in softer than expected as the world saw commodity prices move lower for the better part of the period. The Aussie momentarily softened following the release but has regained it bid moving back toward opening levels.

  • PPI (QoQ) – Survey:0.8%   Actual:0.6%   Prior:0.8%
  • PPI (YoY) – Survey:2.9%   Actual:2.7%   Prior:3.4%
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