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Forex Market Outlook 10/21/11

By Mike Conlon, on Oct 21, 2011

The market has been range-bound headed into the weekend, but man, those ranges are pretty big! I was surprised as I thought we’d see the ranges tighten up but that hasn’t been the case. Yesterday, the markets made huge moves as various news trickled out regarding the Euro debt crisis.

It is times like these when I tend to be more cautious, as it is difficult to know when news may hit or what its impact may be. Yesterday, the markets were selling off as risk aversion picked up throughout the early US session, only to completely reverse after “news” came out that the size of the rescue plan is going to be in the magnitude of $1.3 Trillion, with a “T”. That is encouraging news for the market, as in this case more is better.

Forex Market Outlook 10/20/11

By Mike Conlon, on Oct 20, 2011

This morning all eyes are on Athens where the Greek rioters are protesting against further austerity measures which are to be voted to ensure that Greece is taking the steps necessary to continue the bailout discussion. The Troika will be reporting the economic state of affairs in Greece but so far the sentiment has been that that was Greece has done is insufficient to date.

Forex Market Outlook 10/19/11

By Mike Conlon, on Oct 19, 2011

Yesterday’s market turn-around exemplifies the type of market action we may continue to see until the Euro debt crisis is finally resolved to the satisfaction of the world. Yes, I said the world. Markets yesterday were selling off on lowered expectations that this weekend’s European summit would produce that resolution, but a rumor hit the tape from a newspaper in Euro that said that France and Germany had agreed to expand the size of the ESFS to 2 trillion euros, much larger than had been previously agreed upon.

Forex Market Outlook 10/18/11

By Mike Conlon, on Oct 18, 2011

With the overhang of the realization that indeed Euro zone leaders will not have a resolution in place by next week like the G-20 leaders asked for, it is now questionable what exactly Merkozy were referring to when they claimed to be able to have something ready by early November. Is their timetable still in play? From where I sit, it doesn’t seem likely.

Forex Market Outlook 10/14/11

By Mike Conlon, on Oct 14, 2011

It looks as though the European rescue plan is starting to take shape as a meeting of G-20 leaders is likely to produce a framework for the resolution. It is then likely that whatever emerges will be discussed at a meeting next week of European leaders and if that is agreed to, then we could have the final resolution by early November as promised by Merkel and Sarkozy.

Forex Market Outlook 10/13/11

By Mike Conlon, on Oct 13, 2011

Yesterday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes was a complete dud and market hopes that the Fed was close to QE3 went unrealized. Part of that hope came from Bernanke’s speech to the Joint Economic Committee earlier this month, but it seems as though that mention of further easing was intended to keep the markets from falling off a cliff.

Yet they are no closer to QE3 then previously thought, so the “free money trade” will have to wait for another day or for the economy to worsen dramatically, which is not out of the realm of possibility if the EU fails to meet their deadline on the debt crisis resolution. The clock is ticking.

Aussie Employment Report

The Australian Employment Report was released much stronger than expected, the details are as follows:

  • Employment Change – Survey:10K   Actual:20.4K   Prior:-9.7K
  • Unemployment Rate – Survey:5.3%   Actual:5.2%   Prior:5.3%
  • Full Time Employment Change – Actual:10.8K   Prior:-12.6K
  • Part Time Employment Change – Actual:9.6K   Prior:-2.9K
  • Participation Rate – Survey:65.6%   Actual:65.6%   Prior:65.6%

The AUD/USD moved to October highs on the release as both full time and part time jobs increased at the unemployment rate fell by 10 basis points. The Aussie push higher the last few sessions has tracked the Euro appreciation and modest renewal of a bid in the commodities complex.

Aussie Retail Sales

The seasonally adjusted August Aussie Retail Sales reading expected to be up 0.2% came in firmer at +0.6%, better than the prior increase of 0.5% (revised to 0.6%.) The Aussie moved higher initially but has lost some steam as we’ve seen risk come off its late day rally in NY.

Aussie Employment Report

The Australian Employment Report came out much weaker than expected, dropping the AUDUSD pair 60 pips initially. The expected Employment Change was to be a gain of 10K jobs, however the release was a negative (9.7K) number, making it worse Full Time Jobs (-12.6K) led the march lower as Part-Time jobs showed modest gains (+2.9k.)  The real surprise came in the Unemployment Rate jumping 20 basis points to 5.3% vs. the expectation and prior reading of 5.1%.

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