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RBA Meeting Minutes

The RBA’s Meeting Minutes initially moved the AUD/USD pair toward the 1.06 handle before moving lower as the RBA sees higher rates likely ‘at some point’ to ease inflation (basically the current rate hikes should be enough to curb the inflation they have experienced the last few quarters.) In addition the RBA had the following comments:

Aussie Employment Report

The Aussie Employment Report came out much worse than expected; making it worse the indicator was driven lower by full time jobs. The AUD/USD sold off ~80 pips initially and the move could pose some follow through concerns for Aussie long positions as commodity weakness is also becoming a story. The details of the release are as follows:

New Zealand Business PMI

Kiwi Business PMI came out stronger in April at an expansionary 51.5 reading versus the 50.1 number the prior month. The Kiwi had a muted reaction as the main piece of data early in this trading day will be the Aussie employment report due out 4:30 MT4 time. Stay tuned!

AUD/$ testing hourly trendline support

The pair began the new trading day on recent highs, but has found itself trading lower as the session continues. You can see it tested the 100 hour moving average @ 1.07339, but could not close through the bullish trendline. We have additional support in this area added by the 23.6% fibo line at 1.07451. It seems there is some upward momentum; 1.07784 is the first key level higher.


Aussie Trade Balance

The Aussie Trade Balance surplus came in at 1.74B much better than the expected surplus of 500M (-205M prior.) The Aussie moved marginally higher on the release as we’ve seen the USD regain some momentum early in the Asian trading session.

Aussie Retail Sales & Building Approvals

Retail Sales fell in the 1st quarter of 2011 with rising rates and inflation, more than estimated by the survey. Building Approval numbers however jumped in March, as the supply has not become a concern for this indicator here in the short-term. As a result we have seen the AUD fall, however the Euro has gained a bid across the board in what is a relatively thin market on a Japanese holiday (Golden Week,) based on views that the ECB will signal higher rates.

  • Retail Sales sa (MoM) - Survey:0.5%   Actual:-0.5%   Prior:0.5%
  • Retail Sales ex-inflation (QoQ) - Survey:0.6%   Actual:0.0%   Prior:-0.3%
  • Building Approvals (MoM) - Survey:5.0%   Actual:9.1%   Prior:-7.4%
  • Building Approvals (YoY) - Survey:-25.2%    Actual:-18.1%   Prior:-21.8%

AIG Performance of Services

The April Aussie AIG Performance of Services Index moved to an expansionary level for the first time since October ‘10. The reading was released at 51.5 versus 46.5 the prior month; the Aussie has a muted reaction to this positive release following yesterday’s dovish tone from the RBA.

Aussie PPI

The Australian Q1 Producer Price Index came out stronger than expected, helping to propel the AUD/USD to new highs (post the currency being floated. ) The Aussie was already on the move higher following comments from the RBA suggesting there wont be intervention to soften the AUD.

  • Producer Price Index (QoQ) - Survey:1.0%   Actual:1.2%   Prior:0.1%
  • Producer Price Index (YoY) - Survey:2.7%   Actual:2.9%   Prior:2.7%

The Q1 NAB Business Confidence was also better than the prior quarter release at 11 vs. 5 (prior.)

Westpac Consumer Confidence

The Westpac Consumer (seasonally adjusted) Confidence rose in April +1.2% from -2.4% reading in March, the index also improved moving to 105.6 from 104.1 the prior month. These positive readings seem to be inline with the strength we are seeing in the AUD and its accelerating purchasing power.

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