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Aussie Above Trendline

The AUDUSD pair broke above 6 month old trendline resistance, but has lost its bid at the 76.4% of the October to November move.

AUDUSD Touches Trendline Resistance

The AUDUSD pair had touched 6 month old trendline resistance helped by a better than expected GDP reading out of China and a well subscribed Spanish bond auction. On the chart below we see the wedge closing with steep trendline support and the trending 21 day mavg crossing above the 100day, a break above could quickly lead toward the October highs in the middle of the 1.07 handle.

HIA New Home Sales

HIA New Home Sales for Aussie in November rose by 6.8% from a 5.5% increase the prior month. The AUDUSD pair moved back to the 1.02 handle following the improved, however back dated release. On the chart below we see the pair found seems to be finding some support for now at the 100 day mavg and the old 50% level of the October to November move.

AUDUSD With Downward Potential

The AUDUSD pair has seen the longer-term moving averages turn negative and now 4-21 looks to break below 4-200. The pair has been trapped in December between the 61.8% that’s resisted the pair and the 38.2% that has provided a bid. The markets do not seem encouraged by the developments in Europe over the weekend and any risk off momentum should be reflected in the price of the Aussie with test of the 4-100hr (around par) and possibly the trendline support before year-end.


AUDUSD tests 100 hour MA and finds sellers

The AUDUSD has seen a move higher this morning on the rebound in the EURUSD. The pair has been in a trend move to the downside since a correction peak on November 14th. The move down tested the 100 hour MA four or so times (see blue line) there has not been a sustainable move above this MA line (blue line in the chart above).  The test today at the 0.9768 level is another attempt to show some bullish momentum.

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