Economic Statistics

The RBA’s Lowe had the following comments on the global economy and China’s policy, the market had a limited reaction to these comments:

• Global action prevented more serious downturn.
• Strength of Asian rebound was a surprise.
• Companies are generally more confident but crisis has made them more cautious.
• Capital spending plans still ‘a bit’ below average.
• China policy tightening encouraging.
• China policy actions are positive development.

Says:

Fed accomodation is likely to be appropriate for some time and the Fed Policy has been clear. Hiring is scarce but there are a few signs that hiring has increased.  He does warn that long term Unemployment could have lasting demand impact.  He sees a considerable amount of slack in the economy and as a result inflation is likely to remain signficantly below his specific benchmark.

Mr Evans is not a voting member on the current FOMC

Australian Business Confidence and Conditions were released better than the prior month moving the AUD off session lows and back above the 91 cent handle. NAB Business Confidence came in at 19 versus the prior reading of 15 and Conditions came in at 8 versus the prior reading of 3.

UK’s February Total Retail Sales indicator rose 4.5% from the prior year, with same store sales rising 2.2%. The UK RICS House Prices however showed a decline to 17% from the prior reading of 32% and the expectation of 30%. The GBP/USD pair had a limited reaction, moving initially off session lows on the better sales figure, before returning to pre-release levels. Looking at Cable we see the pair has run into some resistance at the 100 hr moving average and 38.2% retracement yesterday on the latest move from late February highs to early March lows.

The Canada Housing Starts will be released at 8:15 AM  with expectations fo a 190K gain. The USDCAD is testing floor support at the 1.0259 level.  There have been a number of bottoms at the level.  A break below will target the 1.0223 and 1.0207 levels for the pair which are the lows from January 14th 2010 and October 15th, 2009

In an extremely quiet Asian session ahead of tomorrows much anticipated US Non-Farm Payroll release, we see that the USD/JPY pair has been trading between the 50% and 61.8% retracement the entire week, using the those levels as support and resistance. It will be interesting to see if that range is broken following tomorrow mornings US release.