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Short term EUR/USD support at 1.41558

The market has been relatively uneventful so far this session, with the EUR/USD trading inside of a 25 point range; as we await the ever important U.S. non-farm payroll number due out in approximately 5 hours from now. The EUR/USD pair has seen recent support from the 1.41558 level, testing it multiple times today and making two passes lower but finding additional support at 1.41523. It is currently trading on new session highs. From a short-term perspective, on the 15 minute chart you can see that the pair has been testing resistance at 1.41735, the 50.0% line on the move from yesterday’s low to its high, with the session high of 1.41786 coming in just below the 100 bar moving average.

More Euro resistance (this time against the GBP)

After testing channel resistance yesterday, as we noted in one of last nights posts, EUR/GBP traded back down to .87511 where we currently find the 200 hour moving average. We can also note a tight range against the Pound (as I mentioned earlier with the Euro vs. USD). Currently the pair is testing .8793 where both the 23.6% retracement line and 100 hour moving average converge. Resistance is expected here as we haven’t seen conviction in any movement thus fart today.


Euro lower on worse German retail sales

German Feb retail sales fell 0.3% from the previous month (up 1.1% yearly); worse than expected.

U.K. house prices rise 0.5% on themonth, and 0.1% yearly.

Euro slightly softer following Smaghi’s comments

Following less than positive comments from ECB’s Bini Smaghi, the Euro has eased slightly. In the case of the Euro versus the British pound, the pair has been trading continually lower after testing channel resistance which has been forming since February 25th. The next target lower is .87658; the 38.2% line.




Euro firmer after Spanish Central Government posts a surplus for the first 2 months of the year.

The EUR/CHF pair is continuing higher towards 1.2975/80; the level we addressed as our next topside target in the previous chart.


In the cast of the Euro versus the USD: the pair is testing the 61.8% fibo line on the move from March 24th highs to yesterday’s low. An hourly close above this line may be a bullish signal that we may see furthing buying, but resistance could see up back towards the 1.41195 area where the 50.0%, 100 hr MAVG and 200 hour MAVG are all converging.

German Ifo better than expected, EUR moves higher

  • German Ifo Business Climate- Survey: 110.6   Actual: 111.1   Prior: 111.2
  • Euro-zone M3 Money Supply (y/y)- Survey: 1.7%   Actual: 2.0%   Prior: 1.5%
  • Italian Retail Sales (m/m) - Survey: 0.4%   Actual: -0.3%   Prior: 2.4%

German Import Prices 1.0%

Better than the 1.0% forecast and 1.5% prior reading. The market had a limited reaction to the release.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel Comments in Berlin

  • Arab world faces “historic chance” for democracy.
  • Germany backs the goal of Libya’s mission.
  • Wants quick conclusion to Libya campaign goals.
  • EU should agree to block oil exports from Libya.
  • There should be “no more oil exports from Libya”.
  • AWACS deployment helps protect Afghan civilians.
  • Germany urged EU debate on nuclear power safety.
  • Non-EU members should conduct nuclear “stress tests”.
  • Euro helps growth, jobs, and stability; binds European Union together.
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