EUR/USD

The EURUSD has pushed higher and tests the 1.3654 level.  A break of this level will next target the 1.3691 level.   The London fixing/close is approaching and this may be having an influence on the market currently.  The 1.3691 level above has been another area where the market found support and resistance over the last few weeks.

The EURUSD held the 100 hour MA below at the 1.3613 and is back up testing the high for the day.  Of course the market has seen this before only to get scared and move back down.  So expect the customary profit takers.  A breakk would target 1.3654 which is a consolidation area for the pair  A move back down, well it has the 1.3613 level as continued support.

Is the market a man or a mouse?  I would so welcome a break just to make things interesting but it is not my decision. It is the will of the market.

Says

Papandeou comments on the newswires has sent the EURUSD back down after failing to extend above the key 1.3691 level.  He has said that, Europe must understand Greek reforms need time.  Adds, not asking Europe to rush to aid of reckless countries but adds that Europe must  help Greek take longer view as budget cuts won’t lead to sustained growth.  He warns that deflation risk for Greece if productivity and job creation is not initiated.

The EURUSD has made a break to the upside, moving above the converged 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart and extended toward the 1.3691 level. This level was the high from February 23rd and was an area of resistance in early trade today.  We should see some selling against the level. However a break will look to target the high for the day at the 1.3704 level. ABove that is the high from last week at the 1.3735.

The Greek government is launching a bond today totaling 5 billion Euros. This is just the beginning of the process and so they are not out of the woods by any measure. The Greek government announced an austerity package yesterday which totalled about $6.4 billion of additional debt reduction plans. The implementation is key, as is this debt issue and EU support (verbally or otherwise). It is estimated that Greek will need to issue $72 billion of debt this year (53 billion euros). The 5 billion euros today is just the start and it does not come without a cost. The rate is likely to be 6.4%. 

The EURUSD corrected down to 1.3711 off the ceiling top at 1.3735 area. The low corrective price following the surge higher above the 1.3691 level came down to 1.3707.   This could be a short term stop level for intraday traders with confirmation of further downside if the price were to go below the 1.3691.

The topside is defined by the 1.3735 level.   A move above should solicit additional buying interest with 1.3788 level which was the high price from February 17th. Longer term resistance comes in at the 1.3850/73 area (38.2% of the 2010 high to low range - see chart above).

This is helping the EURUSD and has led to a break out to the upside. The price is now above the 1.3691 level (high from February 23rd) and paves the way for additional gains for the pair. Support now comes in at 1.3691 with the next upside target at 1.3737 and the two week high at 1.3788.

Longer term the pair has the potential to work its way toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the January 2010 high of 1.4579 to the low reached yesterday at 1.3437. This level comes in at 1.3873.   See the chart below. 

The EURUSD has broken higher at the London 11:00 AM NYT fixing.  The price is testing the key 1.3691 level (moved to a high of 1.3698) and has paused.  The activity is picking up but we have seen these extremes be rejected on a number of occassions, so one can expect some hesitation once again.  Support now comes in at 1.3673-78.  Below, the 1.3654 level.

The EURUSD has broken above the 1.3654 level and extends higher. The next target is 1.3691.  This is the trendline resistance and the high from February 23rd so it represents a key technical level to get through for the bulls.  Support now at 1.3650.

The EURUSD has had resistance at the 1.3654 coming into the trading day and continues to have resistance at the 1.3654 level. The  high did extend to a intraday high of 1.3670 but it was reversed.  The price is now back down on the comment that Germany would not provide debt aid to Greece despite the austerity measures announced today. 

Look for resistance at the 1.3627/32 now.  This is where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found (green and blue line below).