Forex Trading

Industrial Production fell below the survey and came in especially weak month over month; the indicator could eventually struggle further if the Yen continues to hold its high valuation. The details of the release are as follows:

• Industrial Production (YoY) - Survey:18.9%   Actual:17.0%   Prior:20.4%
• Industrial Production (MoM) - Survey:0.2%   Actual:-1.5%   Prior:0.1%

Tokyo and the rest of Japan remain in a deflationary tailspin confirmed monthly by most indicators, this month’s reading was no different as the USD/JPY pair attempts to maintain the 87 handle this session.

• Tokyo CPI (YoY) - Survey:-0.8%   Actual:-1.2%   Prior:-0.9%
• Tokyo CPI ex food/energy (YoY) - Survey:-1.4%   Actual:-1.4%   Prior:-1.4%
• National CPI  (YoY) - Survey:-0.7%   Actual:   Prior:-0.9%
• National CPI ex food/energy (YoY) - Survey:-1.1%   Actual:-1.0%   Prior:-1.2%

On the 4-hour chart we saw the USD/JPY pair trade down to the lower Bollinger Band and instantly find support in NY. Does the pair have another test of the 88 handle in it this week (also the 61.8% retracement?)

Japan’s June Jobless report came in worse than expected, which was also worse than the prior reading and the market had a limited reaction in what looks to be another quiet Asian session ahead of tomorrows US GDP report. The PMI reading for July fell below the June number but remains an expansionary indicator.

• Job-to-Applicant Ratio - Survey:.50   Actual:.52   Prior:.50
• Jobless Rate - Survey:5.2%   Actual:5.3%   Prior:5.2%

• Nomura Manufacturing PMI - Actual:52.8   Prior:53.9

The GFK Consumer Confidence Survey came in lower than expected at -22 versus the expectation of -20 and the prior reading of -19. The survey is the lowest since August of 2009 and the personal financial situation and UK’s economic situation for the next 12 months, which are component queries for this survey, are the lowest since March of ‘09. Cable did not react this negative release as it sits above the 1.56 handle.

US Fed’s Fisher speaking today sought to assure his audience that the Fed will not allow itself to be pushed into printing money to resolve the deficit and signaled he would would oppose any further easing on that basis. “One could assume that further monetary accommodation might make the situation worse if private sector operators were to conclude that the Federal Reserve has become politically pliable and is prone to substituting such accommodation for fiscal discipline,” he said.

Forex Midday Report- July 29

FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF pushes hard to support at 1.0393

FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF pushes hard to support at 1.0393

Jobless Claims:     Survey: 460K         Actual: 457K          Prior: 464K        Revised: 468K

Continuing Claims:           Survey: 4500K           Actual: 4565K         Prior: 4487K          Revised: 4484K

Good Morning: