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Forex Trading

EURUSD holds support against 50% Fibo support. Correction key now.

The 50% of the 2012 range held support on the 1st test and the price has bounced modestly. The topside resistance now comes in at the 1.30779 to 1.30862 level. This is the 38.2%-50% of the last leg to the downside for the pair (see chart below). A move above this level will lessen the trend tendencies for the pair today. Holding below these levels will continue to put pressure on the dip buyers/longs.  Watch this correction level for further downside clues today.

Spanish Finance Minister says extra 0.5% deficit cut should not significantly impact growth

There is increased concern about Spain over the last few days.  With 23% unemployment/50% youth unemployment, the country is feeling the pressure.

AUDUSD tests the 38.2% of the move up from December

The 1.0474 level is the 38.2% of the move up from the December 2010 low. The price tested that level yesterday (low reached the 1.0472 level) and bounced to the 1.0559 level overnight. The price has since fallen with the dollar strength and is now back down testing the key support.  The second test may not be so lucky with a break next targeting the 200 day MA at the 1.0403 level.

USDCHF moves away from 100 day MA

The USDCHF has been using the 100 day MA as a ceiling area over the last week or so of trading. The price has been able to move above the level but has not been able to close above the level. Today the price is breaking away with the next target at the 0.9260 level which is the 50% of the move down from the 2012 high.

USDJPY approaches Fibo resistance at 82.975

The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2010 high comes in at the 82.975 level. This level is being approached (new high comes in at the 82.85 level) and should solicit some profit taking sellers on the first test, with stops on a move above.

Retail Sales come in as expected. Ex Auto better. EURUSD tests Monday lows

The US Retail Sales ex Auto came in better at +0.9% vs +0.7%  expectations. The EURUSD moved to new session lows and tested the lows from yesterday at the 1.3078 level.  The 1.1% headline gain in the Retail Sales was the highest since September 2011 and keeps the idea that the US economy is on a growth trajectory that could lead to further employment gains down the road.

ECB Weidman calls for standard policy should be reinstated as soon as possible

  • Talks on exiting non standard measures going on
  • Growth driven by domestic forces
  • Inflation to exceed 2% in 2012 with inflation expectations remaining firmly anchored
  • Central banks took on considerable financial risks
  • ECB is discussing risks of non standard measures and the side effects of the tools
  • It is important to lead exit discussions

Weidman is a hawk on the ECB board


usd/hkd fills the gap.

usd/hkd fill this recent rally when usd/hkd gaps higher and now crating a small upward wedge formation.

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