GBP/USD

Gbp/Usd has broken above the 1.5025-30 level where its 100 & 200 hour M/A’s lie. As stated in an earlier post the pair swiftly traded up to 1.5065-70 area where it met more resistance in the form of the 61.8% fibo at 1.5070. The longer the pair stays above 1.5030 the better chance we have of a breakout to the upside.

Gbp/Usd is trading  just beneath its 100 and 200 hour M/A (1.5026 & 1.5025 respectively). Also the 50% Fibo of the move down starting on March 8th lies at 1.5032. This area should be a strong level of resistance and a break above could bring the pair up to 1.5070. If it holds a move back down to 1.4960-70 level is likely.

UK’s February Total Retail Sales indicator rose 4.5% from the prior year, with same store sales rising 2.2%. The UK RICS House Prices however showed a decline to 17% from the prior reading of 32% and the expectation of 30%. The GBP/USD pair had a limited reaction, moving initially off session lows on the better sales figure, before returning to pre-release levels. Looking at Cable we see the pair has run into some resistance at the 100 hr moving average and 38.2% retracement yesterday on the latest move from late February highs to early March lows.

The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.5015. That level and the 1.5000 level is support for the GBPUSD and providing support for the GBPUSD.  A move above the 1.5053 then 1.5066 level will be needed to spur on additional buying interest. A break below 1.5000 level should trigger increased selling interest.  The stock market open and reaction will be the next market moving event as the market reaction to the Unemployment starts to die down without a major move or breakout.

The GBPUSD is coming back down and looks to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.5048 level.  A break of the level will next look to targe the low for the day at 1.5021 and then the 1.5001 level which is the 38.2% of the last move higher.  A move below the 100 hour MA is a  disappointment for those looking at the the breakout yesterday and the new high today.

The GBPUSD held the converged 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.0530 level and bounced.  The ability to hold suggest higher prices but will also provide a stop level should the price not advance.   Traders are still not comfortable with the moves and with a ceiling on the same chart at the 1.5066, the bulls have a level to lean against and the bears do too.  So watch closely and look for a break.

The GBPUSD is moving toward the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5094 level (high today reached 1.5074)  on the back of better than expected PMI Services (to 58.4 from 55.0).

Looking at the chart above, the price has closed below the 100 hour MA for all but 1 hourly bar since February 17th. During that time the price has trended down on the back of UK debt worries and recently, the minority government dilemma.  During that time , the price has  moved from 1.5690 to the recent low of 1.4782.

The GBP/USD pair is outperforming other risk pairs after being battered on political concerns all week (minority is currently leading in the election polls.) Following good Retail numbers and a promising Consumer Confidence reading the pair is approaching the 38.2% retracement of the move lower from last Tuesday. The pair could be met with some resistance there or the 100 hr moving average above that, which has provided some resistance on the aforementioned descent.

The GBPUSD is testing the topside trendline resistance at the 1.4978 level.  A break to the upside should lead to further topside momentum to the 1.5015 level which is the high from yesterday.

On the downside look for support at the 1.4943 level now.