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IMF on the Wires Regarding Irelands Future

Beaumont says:

  • Risks on high side for Ireland
  • Estimates Ireland needs 14 billion in market funding in 2013
  • ‘Sufficient’ Irish market return in 2013 uncertain
  • Irish debt sustainability ‘remains fragile’
  • Irish economy faces great struggles
  • ‘Lot of consensus’ among troika on Anglo Irish notes
  • Anticipates no impact from treaty campaign on program
  • Urges enhanced support for Ireland from Europe

IMF Comments to the G-20

  • G20 countries can help EU expand size of bailout, and advanced countries’ monetary policy should remain accomodative
  • ECB should expand the balance sheet for banks and debt crisis
  • CNY is appreciating faster than previously, and China needs to continue to allow the CNY to appreciate
  • G20 markets assign low likelihood of Iran-related oil supply disruption, and Iran oil export disruption would push prices up USD 23-30 per BBL.

Christine LaGarde, IMF Chief Comments

  • No doubt on political will on Greece
  • Greece’s default is not an option, Greece and creditors will reach an accord
  • Confidence can be restored with Euro firewall, and understands Germany’s reluctance to introduce Euro bonds
  • Bank recapitalization is under way across Europe

IMF Headlines

  • Lowers world growth outlook to 3.3% in 2012 from September forecast of 4%.  Sees 3.9% growth in 2013
  • Without action, debt crisis may force 4% Euro-area contraction
  • 2012 recession in Italy of -2.2% and -0.6% in 2013, Spain -1.7% in 2012
  • Maintains US growth forecast at 1.8%, projects 2.2% for 2013
  • Governments avoid responding to any unexpected growth downturn by tightening policies
  • Eurozone set to enter mild recession in 2012 at -0.5% and resume growth at 0.8% in 2012
  • Japan 2012 growth forecast cut to 1.7% from September forecast of 2.3%
  • China 2012 growth forecast cut to 8.2% from September forecast of 9.0%
  • Sovereign financing stress has increased
  • Global finance system remains fragile
  • Important

Treasury’s Collyns on the Wires


  • Obama administration very ‘closely engaged’ with Europe
  • U.S. not making taxpayer commitments to Europe
  • U.S. can be supportive of Europe through IMF
  • IMF plays constructive role in Europe
  • IMF has supplementary role in Europe
  • Emerging markets could play even stronger role
  • Emerging markets could boost domestic demand
  • IMF playing ‘crucial role’ in Europe
  • IMF has played role without risk to U.S taxpayers
  • U.S. has “serious fiscal issue” medium term


IMF and ECB’s Szekely, Masuch & Chopra on the Wires


  • Irish fiscal program on track
  • Tensions in bond markets have escalated
  • Irish program cushioning it from market developments
  • Irish six month deficit below targets in aid program
  • Strong implementation needed to prevent contagion
  • Ireland met all targets in review
  • Masuch says no change on ECB stance on senior bonds
  • Moody’s Irish downgrade linked to EU policy plans
  • Contagion risk is pushing up irish spreads
  • Ireland showing some signs of economic growth
  • Irish debt is sustainable
  • No need for Irish restructuring

IMF Releases Statement in Washington

IMF says ‘we stand ready to continue our support for Greece’, along with this comment they also say that they will see  a ‘positive outcome’ on Greece at next Euro-group meeting. Any program for Greece is subject to approval from the IMF board. Suport is subject to adoption of agreed Greek reforms.

IMF on the Wires


  • Forecasts world growth 4.4% in 2011, 4.5% in 2012
  • Sees oil at 107.16 a barrel in 2011
  • Recovery more ’self sustaining’
  • Developing nations will grow 6.5% in 2011
  • Advanced economies will grow 2.4% in 2011
  • Cuts U.K 2011 grwoth projection to 1.7% from 2.0%
  • IMF cuts Japan growth 2011 projection to 1.4% from 1.6%
  • Projects Euro-Region growth of 1.6% in 2011, 9.5 next year
  • Sees ‘risks’ from U.S. fiscal policy
  • Sees ‘very sluggish’ credit in advanced economies
  • Urges U.s to tackle defecit
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