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Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF has most likely resumed its longer term trend towards USD strength.  This is my working assumption as long as price is above 1.13.  Price is testing a support line drawn off of March and April lows now.

The USDCAD has plunged through Fibonacci support but the trend remains up as long as price is above 1.1976.  Staying above there keeps open the possibility that a wave 4 low is in place within the 5 wave advance from .9055.

I continue to favor the downside against 98.46.  The long term trend remains down and I am looking for a resumption of that trend.  Former support is potential resistance at 97.57.  Short term bearish targets are at 96 and 94 (near former daily lows).

Bigger picture, there are 5 waves down from that .6090, suggesting that the long term trend remains down.  Additionally, an expanded flat correction has unfolded from the February 2 low (.4958).  Weakness is favored against .5939.  Near term, there is potential Fibonacci resistance at .5761.

As long as .7260 is intact, there is significant bearish potential.  The 200 day SMA defends resistance at the key level.  Bigger picture, a complex correction may be complete from the October 2008 low.

An expanded flat is nearing completion.  61.8% Fibonacci resistance is at 1.48 and price is testing 50% Fibonacci resistance now at 1.4766.  I am expecting a top and reversal.

The EURUSD has soared and is nearing the top of the false channel that has formed since the March top.  Despite the unexpected rally, I maintain that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is down within the 5 wave decline from 1.60.  Fibonacci resistance has been exceeded, which dampens confidence in the bearish bias but the trend remains down as long as 1.34 is intact.

MIDDAY SNAPSHOT & ANALYSIS OF SELECTED RATES

-EURUSD 1.34 is key level
-GBPUSD expanded flat nearing completion
-AUDUSD 200 day SMA at .7260
-USDJPY risk moved to 98.50
-USDCHF support line

Euro / US Dollar

Sales of new homes in the US declined 0.6% to 356,000 from 358,000 in March. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected the figure to see no change from the previous month. Although technically a decline, a sharp upward revision was made to February's release which puts the sales well above the 337,000 consensus estimate. Ultimately the release came as little surprise as recent data, including Housing Starts and the House Price Index, also came in weaker. Dwelling deeper into the number, the supply of homes on the market declined further to 10.7 months, the third consecutive decline from a peak of 12.5 months in January.