News

ADP Employment Stays According to Forecast

Employment in the US has risen to 216K from a prior number of 170K and a survey of 215K. Revision was stronger coming in at 173K

Feb 2012 vs. Jan 2012
ADP Employment: 110,249 vs 110,033
Level Change: 216 vs 173 
Prev Change: n/a vs 170

ISM’s Nieves on the Wires

Says:

• Growth is ‘pretty strong’
• Price increases are a concern for outlook
• Rise in fuel prices may lead to cost cutting
• Members not yet saying costs impeding growth
• Jobs outlook ‘still a little bit mixed’

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 56.2   Actual: 57.3  Prior: 56.8 
 
Business Activity   62.6 vs 59.5 
Backlog of Orders *  53.0 vs 49.5  
Inventory Change *  53.5 vs 47.0 
Employment   55.7 vs 57.4      

Factory Orders:    Survey: -1.5%   Actual: -1.0%   Prior: 1.1%   Revised: 1.4%

Says:

• U.S. Economic data ‘better than expected’
• Fed never takes anything ‘off the table’ on policy
• The probability of a serious meltdown in Europe has weakened
• The fed rate will rely strongly on economic performance
• U.S. still faces risks from Europe crisis
• $4 dollars for gasoline not slowing consumers down
• $5 dollars for gasoline would change priority of many drivers
• Progress shown in Europe on “fiscal pact”
• U.S. could weather a recession in Europe
• Does not want to ‘reinflate’ U.S. housing bubble

Beaumont says:

• Risks on high side for Ireland
• Estimates Ireland needs 14 billion in market funding in 2013
• ‘Sufficient’ Irish market return in 2013 uncertain
• Irish debt sustainability ‘remains fragile’
• Irish economy faces great struggles
• ‘Lot of consensus’ among troika on Anglo Irish notes
• Anticipates no impact from treaty campaign on program
• Urges enhanced support for Ireland from Europe

ISM Manufacturing:  Survey: 54.8   Actual: 52.4   Prior: 54.1

Feb vs Jan 12′ Breakdown
Production: 55.3 vs 55.7
New Orders: 54.9 vs 57.6
Employment: 53.2 vs 54.3 
Inventories: 49.5 vs 49.5
Prices:  61.5 vs 55.5
Order Backlogs: 52.0  vs 52.5

ISM Prices Paid:  Survey: 58.0   Actual: 61.5   Prior: 55.5

Construction Spending: Survey: 1.0%   Actual: -0.1%  Prior:  1.5%   Revised: 1.4%

USD/JPY moves to the downside a bit.