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ADP Employment Stays According to Forecast

ADP Employment Stays According to Forecast

Employment in the US has risen to 216K from a prior number of 170K and a survey of 215K. Revision was stronger coming in at 173K

Feb 2012 vs. Jan 2012
ADP Employment: 110,249 vs 110,033
Level Change: 216 vs 173 
Prev Change: n/a vs 170

ISM’s Nieves on the Wires

ISM’s Nieves on the Wires


  • Growth is ‘pretty strong’
  • Price increases are a concern for outlook
  • Rise in fuel prices may lead to cost cutting
  • Members not yet saying costs impeding growth
  • Jobs outlook ‘still a little bit mixed’


US Factory Orders and Non-Manufacturing Composite Both Better Than Expectations, ISM Highest Since Feb 2011

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 56.2   Actual: 57.3  Prior: 56.8 
Business Activity   62.6 vs 59.5 
Backlog of Orders *  53.0 vs 49.5  
Inventory Change *  53.5 vs 47.0 
Employment   55.7 vs 57.4      

Factory Orders:    Survey: -1.5%   Actual: -1.0%   Prior: 1.1%   Revised: 1.4%

Fed’s Bullard on the Wires


  • U.S. Economic data ‘better than expected’
  • Fed never takes anything ‘off the table’ on policy
  • The probability of a serious meltdown in Europe has weakened
  • The fed rate will rely strongly on economic performance
  • U.S. still faces risks from Europe crisis
  • $4 dollars for gasoline not slowing consumers down
  • $5 dollars for gasoline would change priority of many drivers
  • Progress shown in Europe on “fiscal pact”
  • U.S. could weather a recession in Europe
  • Does not want to ‘reinflate’ U.S. housing bubble



IMF on the Wires Regarding Irelands Future

Beaumont says:

  • Risks on high side for Ireland
  • Estimates Ireland needs 14 billion in market funding in 2013
  • ‘Sufficient’ Irish market return in 2013 uncertain
  • Irish debt sustainability ‘remains fragile’
  • Irish economy faces great struggles
  • ‘Lot of consensus’ among troika on Anglo Irish notes
  • Anticipates no impact from treaty campaign on program
  • Urges enhanced support for Ireland from Europe

ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending Drop, Prices Paid Higher

ISM Manufacturing:  Survey: 54.8   Actual: 52.4   Prior: 54.1

Feb vs Jan 12′ Breakdown
Production: 55.3 vs 55.7
New Orders: 54.9 vs 57.6
Employment: 53.2 vs 54.3 
Inventories: 49.5 vs 49.5
Prices:  61.5 vs 55.5
Order Backlogs: 52.0  vs 52.5

ISM Prices Paid:  Survey: 58.0   Actual: 61.5   Prior: 55.5

Construction Spending: Survey: 1.0%   Actual: -0.1%  Prior:  1.5%   Revised: 1.4%


USD/JPY moves to the downside a bit.

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