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US Import Price Index and Current Account Both Lower

US Import Price Index and Current Account Both Lower

Current Account Balance:  Survey: -115.0B   Actual:  -124.1B    Prior: -110.3B   Revised: -107.6B

Index(MoM):  Survey:  0.6%    Actual:  0.4%    Prior:  0.3%    

Import Price Index(YoY):  Survey: 5.8%    Actual: 5.5%    Prior:  7.1%

US Business Inventories Improve, Continue Positive US Data Today

Business Inventories:    Survey:  0.5%      Actual: 0.7%    Prior: 0.4%

Jan. 12 vs. Dec. 11
Business Inventories Breakdown:

Retail Inventories:   1.1% vs  0.5%
Ex-Autos:   0.4% vs. 0.4%
Motor Vehicles:   2.6% vs. 0.6%
Furniture:   0.4% vs. 0.3%
Building Material:   1.1% vs  -0.4%
Food & Beverage:   0.4% vs  0.4%
Clothing:   0.8% vs 0.0%
General Merchandise:   0.3% vs  1.6%
Dept. Stores:  -1.1% vs 1.6%

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism:     Survey: 48.6      Actual:  49.4     Prior: 47.5

ECB’s Presidnet Draghi Speaking


  • Steadfast commitment to price stability
  • Governments need to compliment the work of the ECB
  • In his speech he will focus on competitiveness
  • Continued signs of ECB stabilization
  • The situation in the financial markets has improved after LTRO
  • Countries should use this phase to make progress
  • Banks should retain earnings
  • Financial system should serve real economy
  • Growth will be supported by low short term rates

ADP Employment Stays According to Forecast

ADP Employment Stays According to Forecast

Employment in the US has risen to 216K from a prior number of 170K and a survey of 215K. Revision was stronger coming in at 173K

Feb 2012 vs. Jan 2012
ADP Employment: 110,249 vs 110,033
Level Change: 216 vs 173 
Prev Change: n/a vs 170

Fed’s Bullard on the Wires


  • U.S. Economic data ‘better than expected’
  • Fed never takes anything ‘off the table’ on policy
  • The probability of a serious meltdown in Europe has weakened
  • The fed rate will rely strongly on economic performance
  • U.S. still faces risks from Europe crisis
  • $4 dollars for gasoline not slowing consumers down
  • $5 dollars for gasoline would change priority of many drivers
  • Progress shown in Europe on “fiscal pact”
  • U.S. could weather a recession in Europe
  • Does not want to ‘reinflate’ U.S. housing bubble



ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending Drop, Prices Paid Higher

ISM Manufacturing:  Survey: 54.8   Actual: 52.4   Prior: 54.1

Feb vs Jan 12′ Breakdown
Production: 55.3 vs 55.7
New Orders: 54.9 vs 57.6
Employment: 53.2 vs 54.3 
Inventories: 49.5 vs 49.5
Prices:  61.5 vs 55.5
Order Backlogs: 52.0  vs 52.5

ISM Prices Paid:  Survey: 58.0   Actual: 61.5   Prior: 55.5

Construction Spending: Survey: 1.0%   Actual: -0.1%  Prior:  1.5%   Revised: 1.4%


USD/JPY moves to the downside a bit.

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