USD/JPY

The USDJPY has been in a quiet range in the NY session. The low in the NY session has gone down to 90.21. The high has reached 90.48.  The price is trading in between the two extremes at the 90.35.  This is also where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  The close on Friday was 90.33.  The price is at it’s equilibrium level.

In an extremely quiet Asian session ahead of tomorrows much anticipated US Non-Farm Payroll release, we see that the USD/JPY pair has been trading between the 50% and 61.8% retracement the entire week, using the those levels as support and resistance. It will be interesting to see if that range is broken following tomorrow mornings US release.

The USDJPY has moved sharply higher after breaking above trendline resistance at the 88.48 level.  The price is testing the low from Feb 26th which was the bottom of the consolidation phase which gripped the market from Feb 25th to yesterday’s break lower.  A move above will run into 100 hour MA resistance at the 88.89 level currently. The price has remained below the 100 hour MA since February 23rd when it broke at  91.20.

As per earlier post, the USDJPY is looking to test the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the November low to the January high. The level comes in at the 88.23 price.  A break of that level will look toward 87.50.

Look for profit taking buyers against the 88.23 level with stops on a break. Topside should find sellers against the 88.46 level now (low from earlier today).

The USDJPY reached a new low overnight for the latest move lower at the 88.46 level. The price has retraced to a high at the 88.98 but is now back down at the prior move low for this consolidation period at the 88.72 level.  The market is at a crossroad.  Does it move back above the decline 100 hour MA, or continue the trend down.

The bias remains to the downside for the pair below the 100 hour MA.  Look for sellers on rallies toward the level.  A move back below the  88.72 level could solicit some selling pressure this morning. 

The USDJPY is non-trending between the 100 hour MA at 89.33 currently (blue line in the chart above), and a floor at the 88.73 area.  Additional upside resistance comes in at the 89.45.

The USDJPY has been pressured on the last move down, since peaking at 92.14 on Feb 19th. The pair has been consolidating that move lower over the last 3 trading days with the price trading between resistance at the 89.45 level and support at the 88.73/82 area.  This has allowed the 100 hour MA to come back into play (at 89.33).  The market is at a crossroad.

The USDJPY has fallen on the weaker housing data.  The data is just not good and with the winding down of government purchases of mortgage securities, one has to wonder how bank lending will proceed going forward.  The low for the day was 89.01. The low from yesterday afternoon after the move higher off the low came in at the 89.04 level. This area will now become upside resistance for the pair.  The low yesterday at 88.79 area needs to be broken on the downside to confirm further pressure.

The high for the USDJPY was on Monday at the 91.89. The low occurred yesterday at the 88.79 level.  The price moved below the 100 hour MA at the 91.19 level on Tuesday, the trendline and 200 hour MA on Tuesday.  Consolidated on Wednesday at the 100 day MA (at 90.16) and moved lower Thursday.  Now the market is consolidating once again as the week comes to a close.

The Yens demand has come off the flight to quality bid as a result of slower global growth and the Greece situation.  This should continue in the near term. However watching the technical levels are always important.

Durable Goods 3% better than expected and the prior month was revised higher from 1.0% to 1.9%.
Durable Goods Ex Transportation -0.6% but prior month was revised to 2.0 from 1.4%

Jobless Claims 496K much higher than expected.

The weaker employment and Ex Trans has the USDJPY moving lower. 89.28 is upside resistance now. This is the 50% retracement of the move up from the Nov 2009 low to the Jan 2010 high.   On the downside the target becomes 88.81 area (see chart below).

The USDJPY remains around the 100 day MA as the market non-trends.  Of course, non-trending markets transition into a trend, so we will be looking for the possibility of a break and trend type move up or down today.  Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart, the 100 and 200 bar MA are at the 90.15 and 90.17 levels respectively.  The convergence of price and the 2 moving averages are another clue the market is non-trending .  This is what we call Three’s a Crowd and it often is a prelude to a trend type move.